EPL Season 2012/2013 Preview

Here we are, about to get another season underway for arguably the most exciting domestic league in the world!

The Contenders

The make-up of the “Big Four”, traditionally comprised of Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal, has certainly changed. Without a doubt, Manchester City’s buying power under the ownership of Sheikh Mansour has seen them overtake Liverpool who begin a new era under former Swansea manager Brendan Rodgers.

After the climatic finish to last season where United were pipped to the post on goal difference by their neighbours City, bookmakers have installed City as favourites for this season just ahead of United.

Roberto Mancini has been frustrated with the lack of transfers at City, having only added Jack Rodwell this summer. However, they do have Carlos Tevez back and committed to the club after all the nonsense that went on between Mancini and him last season. Although City scored the most goals (93) and conceded the least (29) in the EPL last season, it will be a hard ask for them to defend their title, especially with their owners wanting a better performance in the Champions League than last season where they failed to get past the group stage.

United have certainly strengthened their squad with the addition of Shinji Kagawa, finally giving them some creativity in midfield, although they did bring Paul Scholes out of retirement last season and he is still going! Even better still, Sir Alex Ferguson has pulled off THE signing of the summer by getting in Robin van Persie from rivals Arsenal. Without a doubt, a Robin van Persie and Wayne Rooney tandem strikeforce will leave defenders shaking in their boots. Surprisingly Sir Alex has let industrious midfielder Park Ji-Sung join Queens Park Rangers, perhaps the marketing department just wanted to focus on expanding their fan-base into Japan having done enough in South Korea.

Personally, I would make United favourites for this season’s title. Sir Alex knows what it takes to compete on all fronts.

The Notables

European champions Chelsea, under the guidance of Roberto Di Matteo, should be in amongst it having added the likes of Eden Hazard and Marko Marin to their midfield. However, they will need Fernando Torres firing on all cylinders if they are to make a run at the title. Because if he does not, Chelsea are very light upfront with Didier Drogba leaving on a free transfer to Shanghai Shenhua after his contract finished up and young gun Romelu Lukaku going to West Bromwich Albion on loan. Looks like Daniel Sturridge will get his wish of playing more centrally. If Di Matteo manages to sign a striker such as Porto’s Hulk, then that would certainly give them more firepower.

Arsenal have gone seven years without a trophy and that drought looks set to continue as the club continues to lose key players. Arsene Wenger has finally spent some money bringing in midfielder Santi Cazorla and forwards Lukas Podolski and Olivier Giroud, the Ligue 1 top goalscorer in 2011/2012. As is Wenger’s style, expect to see Podolski roaming the wings similar to Thierry Henry when he first joined Arsenal from Juventus. Giroud will now replace van Persie at the pointy end of the formation and he looks physically ready for the rigours of the EPL. However, Arsenal really needed to splash the cash on some decent defenders to shore up his leaky defence that have let in 43 and 49 league goals in the last two seasons. A team that lets in that many goals cannot be expected to win the coveted title.

Tottenham look set to lose playmaker Luka Modric to Real Madrid meaning the playmaking duties will fall solely to Rafael van der Vaart. Gareth Bale has been handed the number 9 shirt and could play even further up the pitch with Spurs lacking strikers. Having failed to negotiate a contract with Emmanuel Adebayor, who performed well for them on loan from City last season, they currently only have Jermain Defoe as their recognised senior forward. Pre-season has seen new manager Andre Villas-Boas give youngster Harry Kane more of a run-out but AVB certainly needs to bring a new striker in if they want to compete. To date Spurs have brought in midfielder-cum-forward Gylfi Sigurdsson and defender Jan Vertonghen. Following AVB’s failings at Chelsea, it remains to be seen whether he has what it takes to manage in the EPL.

Liverpool are going through a rebuilding phase under young manager Rodgers and it will be a couple of years, if not a few, before they are back challenging for the title. However, an European place is certainly not out of the question. For the Europe League that is!

After Newcastle's unexpected success last season where they were pushing for a Champions League berth up until the last couple of weeks of the season, you can expect them to be in amongst the European spots again this season especially having kept their best players together like Demba Ba, Papiss Cisse, Yohan Cabaye, Cheik Tiote and club captain Fabricio Coloccini. After Ba's performances last season and with an apparent release clause in his contract being a measly £7 million during the summer, there were no takers for his services much to the delight of the Geordie fans. If Alan Pardew can add to his French contingent by bringing in international defenders Mathieu Debuchy and Mapou Yanga-Mbiwa, that would only strengthen a defence that leaked 51 league goals last season. That figure could have been higher if not for Newcastle's new number 1 Tim Krul's inspired performances between the posts.

The Rest

Bookmakers have set two of the three promoted clubs, Southampton and Reading, as favourites for relegation this season, along with Norwich who lost manager Paul Lambert to Aston Villa and have brought in Birmingham’s Chris Hughton as his replacement.

Wigan and Swansea are next in line with the bookmakers. Roberto Martinez, still with Wigan after a lot publicity of him being Liverpool’s first choice to replace sacked Kenny Dalglish, has managed to keep Wigan in the EPL despite flirting with relegation for the past 3 seasons and can be expected to do so again. Swansea on the other hand, are most likely destined to go down along with Southampton and Reading having lost Rodgers to Liverpool and replacing him with Danish legend Michael Laudrup. Not only do the Welsh side have a manager with no EPL experience, but they have lost young midfielder Joe Allen who followed his previous manager Rodgers to Anfield and failed to sign Sigurdsson permanently after his successful loan spell last season.

WBA are most likely to get involved in a relegation scrap especially having lost experienced manager Roy Hodgson to national duty. It will be interesting to see how Steve Clarke goes in his first senior role having been in and around big clubs as a coach and assistant manager.

Despite winning promotion via the playoffs, West Ham are expected to stay up having added no less than 8 players to their squad and with experienced EPL manager Sam Allardyce at the helm.

QPR have strengthened their squad well with a mixture of youth and experience so should maintain their EPL status.

Well, enjoy the season all and good luck to whomever you support!

Spain vs Italy Final Preview

v

Tournament favourites Spain have made it to final albeit on the back of some unconvincing performances and with manager Vicente del Bosque still unsure of who to play as his “no. 9”. Eyebrows were raised when he named Alvaro Negredo for the semi-final against Portugal with Negredo only having played just one minute of Euro 2012 prior. His lack of playing time with the team showed as he was on a completely different wavelength to those around him.

Spain went through on penalties in an uneventful match that only had 2 shots on target during the 90 minutes of normal time. To Portugal’s credit, they pressured Spain high up the pitch early on and prevented the Spain imposing their trademark passing and pressing game. However, as the game wore on, fatigue set in for the Portuguese and Spain got into their rhythm. There were no goals still and the lottery that is the penalty shootout went the way of Spain as even Sergio Ramos copied Andrea Pirlo’s ‘Panenka’ style spot-kick.

Italy on the other hand have performed well above expectations coming into this tournament on the back of the ‘calcioscommesse' scandal back home affecting their domestic football. Mind you, I did pick 3 of the 4 eventual semi-finalists in my Euro 2012 preview with only the Netherlands ruining a clean sweep!

The Italians accounted for Germany, another tournament favourite, 2-1 thanks to their maverick striker Mario Balotelli, or Super Mario as his fans refer to him. There is so much publicity about him on and off the pitch that it is easy to forget that he is only still 21-years old! Here is a player who can infuriate just as much as he can dazzle you on the pitch. His first goal was a powerful header from 6-yards out having read the cross from his strike partner Antonio Cassano perfectly and his second, a powerful strike which swerved away into the top-right corner from just outside the box after a long ball from Riccardo Montolivo.

In my Euro 2012 preview I raised the issue of the German defensive frailties in their pre-Euro friendly internationals and after only conceding 2 goals in the group stage, they conceded 2 goals in their quarterfinal against a toothless Greek attack (much like their economy) and then another 2 in this semi-final. Their frailties finally showed through and without a doubt, both Italian goals were a result of poor German defending.

That is not to take anything away from Italy though as they do deserve to be in the final for the way they have gone about their football. Of the four semi-finalists, they are the only team that plays with 2 strikers in a 4-4-2 formation and a diamond midfield. All the others play a 4-2-3-1 formation and deploy one striker, or in Spain’s case, sometimes a ‘false nine’.

Germany’s Mesut Özil put away a penalty in the second minute of injury time after a handball by Italy’s Federico Balzaretti but it was nothing more than a consolation as they ran out of time to salvage anything from this match. Thus Italy maintained their remarkable unbeaten record against Germany in tournament football with four wins and four draws in their eight meetings.

Spain and Italy of course met in the first group match and that ended 1-all but first matches of a tournament are generally cagey affairs which mean that it would not be an accurate indicator. Not only that, but Italy have since disbanded the use of the 3-5-2 formation that was utilised in that match.

Italy’s midfield and strikeforce will remain unchanged with Balotelli starting again upfront alongside Cassano. Defender Ignazio Abate, who missed the semi-final with an injury, is likely to be fit in time for the final while fellow full-back Christian Maggio is also available after serving a one-match ban. The dangerman though that Spain have to watch out for is Pirlo who will be pulling all the strings from his deep-lying playmaker role. He has shown his vision throughout this tournament and set up the opening goal for Italy against Spain in their first match of Euro 2012.

Spain on the other hand, still need to work out what to do with their “no. 9” position in their 4-3-3 formation. Will del Bosque start Fernando Torres? Possibly. Or will Cesc Fabregas start as the ‘false nine’ especially given he scored the equaliser in their first match against the Italians? More likely.

Both teams are defensively sound with Spain only having conceded once all tournament, against Italy mind you, and Italy conceding three times with the third coming in injury time against the Germans after the match was pretty much won. The Italians even regained defender Giorgio Chiellini from injury after it looked like he was going to be ruled out for the rest of the tournament.

I have said Spain would be in the final all along and after the Netherlands failed to live up to their hype, Spain were my choice for the win. However, I do have a nagging feeling that the Italians might just pull a rabbit out of the hat! In 2006, a pre-tournament match-fixing scandal stoked Italy's fire to succeed as they won the World Cup in Germany and the same thing is happening now at Euro 2012! Without a doubt, Spain will dominate the possession statistics, such is their game of tiki-taka. However, they have been poor in the attacking department unlike Italy who may well make them pay.

Balotelli could even end up with the Euro 2012 Golden Boot if he scores and that would only serve to inflate his ego even more! Currently he is tied on 3 goals along with Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, Croatia’s Mario Mandzukic, and my picks as tournament joint top goalscorers, Germany’s Mario Gomez and Russia’s Alan Dzagoev.

Have you ever wondered why Balotelli hardly smiles or celebrates his goals? Well, this is how he explains it, "When I score, I don't celebrate because I'm only doing my job. When a postman delivers letters, does he celebrate?"! Question is, will Italy’s postman deliver in the final?

Euro 2012 Quarterfinals

We are now down to the last quarterfinal to be played between England and Italy. So far all the favourites in their respective matches have made it through.

Portugal defeated the Czech Republic 1-0 thanks to a 79th minute goal from their captain Cristiano Ronaldo who looks to have brought his domestic form with Real Madrid to Euro 2012. The Czechs lacked a cutting edge in the final third especially with their captain and playmaker Tomas Rosicky missing with an Achilles injury. So much so that they only managed 2 shots all game and neither of them were on target. Hard to win a match like that ain’t it?!

Germany emphatically defeated Greece 4-2 although that scoreline was a tad generous for the Greeks. With Greece playing very defensively and deploying one lone striker similar to the Czech Republic, Germany dominated possession and it was only a matter of time before they broke through. German captain Philipp Lahm provided that six minutes before the break as he cut in from the left and let fly with his right foot from outside the 18-yard box. His shot swerved and dipped away from Greek keeper Michail Sifakis who just managed to get a hand to it but it was not enough to keep it out.

Ten minutes after half-time Germany were shocked as Giorgios Samaras beat his marker and got on the end of Dimitris Salpingidis’ low cross and slid the ball under the diving German keeper Manuel Neuer. However, they could not repel the relentless German attacks and within six minutes Sami Khedira timed his run perfectly into the box to meet Jerome Boateng’s cross and volley into the roof of the net with Greek defenders left flat-footed.

Seven minutes later Miroslav Klose, preferred in place of joint tournament top goalscorer Mario Gomez, headed home into an empty net as Sifakis decided to come out but got nowhere near the ball. In the 74th minute Marco Reus, another of the three changes that Joachim Löw made to his starting line-up, justified his selection with a sweet volley that crashed in off the underside of the bar to make it 4-1. The Greeks then had a penalty in the 89th minute converted by Salpingidis after Boateng was harshly ruled to have handballed inside the area as he jumped and had his back to the ball trying to block it. It was of little consolation sends the Greeks back home to pick up the pieces of their game, and economy.

Tournament favourites Spain are also through after a 2-0 win over a disappointing France who went with a 4-5-1 formation just like the Czechs and Greeks, leaving Karim Benzema isolated upfront. The French barely tested Spain and ended the match with four shots, one on target. Despite Spain lining up again with 6 midfielders in their 4-3-3 formation and using Cesc Fábregas as the ‘false nine’, they were allowed to control proceedings and duly took the lead in the 19th minute as Xabi Alonso was left free in the area to meet Jordi Alba’s cross with a downward header into the far post. Alonso then crowned his night in which he earned his 100th international cap with a second goal from the penalty spot after Pedro was brought down in second half injury time.

Seems to be a pattern here! Set out a defensive stall with a 4-5-1 formation and kiss the tournament goodbye!

Spain next take on Cristiano Ronaldo, oh and Portugal, whilst Germany, now having made the semi-finals of four major tournaments in a row, await the winner of the final quarterfinal.

So what can be expected from the England-Italy match? I would imagine that Roy Hodgson would stick to his 4-4-2 formation, using a flat four in midfield with two wingers in Ashley Young and most likely James Milner over Theo Walcott. Wayne Rooney will lead the line alongside his Manchester United teammate Danny Welbeck. Mind you, Hodgson has been known to utilise a 4-5-1 though, most recently with West Bromwich Albion, and if he does that it would spell disaster!

Italy too will stick with their version of a 4-4-2 having moved away from the 3-5-2 formation at the start of the tournament which includes a diamond midfield. Expect Andrea Pirlo to play in the holding midfielder role as a deep-lying playmaker with Daniele De Rossi and Claudio Marchisio in front of him. Brazilian-born Thiago Motta is struggling with a hamstring strain and could be replaced in the ‘No. 10’ role by Alessandro Diamanti or more likely, Riccardo Montolivo. Cesare Prandelli will bring in Mario Balotelli upfront alongside Antonio Cassano after he scored with a spectacular volley in their previous match. Expect some fireworks there! Balotelli will be up against a few of his Manchester City teammates who surely know what buttons to press that will make him see red!

I expect that this will be the first game of the tournament to see extra-time and a penalty shootout. Now we all know about England’s record in the penalties at major tournaments…

Do not be surprised to see a Spain versus Germany final now with Spain making history in the end.

Random fact: There were 2.5 goals more per round in the English Premier League than in the Serie A last season.

C'est La Vie!

The final group matches were concluded today as England laboured to a 1-0 victory over co-hosts Ukraine. England manager Roy Hodgson had suggested leading into this match that they would look to control the game but instead, were on the back foot as they faced relentless waves of Ukrainian forays forward. Ukraine knew a victory would see them through to the quarterfinals but started the match without their star striker and talismanic captain Andriy Shevchenko who picked up a knock in their loss to France.

After serving his 2-match suspension, England’s own talisman Wayne Rooney returned to the starting line-up chomping at the bit and duly delivered the winning goal with a simple nod-in from a yard out in the 48th minute. Captain Steven Gerrard put in his usual teasing cross which deflected twice, fooling Ukrainian keeper Andriy Pyatov who really should have done better at his near post to get his foot to the ball, and ended up at the back post for the onrushing Rooney.

Rooney could have had more than one goal but having barely played in the last month and a half, it was obvious that the lad was lacking sharpness. In order for England to stand a chance of making the semi-finals, he will need to improve along with their wingers James Milner and Ashley Young who went missing for large parts of the game.

Ukraine however will feel aggrieved that they were denied an equaliser when the officials deemed that John Terry had cleared the ball off the goal-line despite replays showing clearly that the whole ball had in fact crossed the goal-line. It begs to wonder, what is the point of the goal line official who had a clear view of the incident?! The sooner goal-line technology is brought in, the better I say. Had that goal been correctly awarded, who knows how the game might have turned out? It easily could have been Ukraine in the next round had they gone on to win.

Sadly for Ukrainian fans, veteran attacking players Shevchenko and Andriy Voronin announced their international retirements after the match but the future looks good judging by the performances of their next generation, players like Andriy Yarmolenko, Marko Devic and Artem Milevskiy.

As a result of the win, England ended up top of Group D and avoided a quarterfinal meeting with Spain, taking on Italy instead. Their task is made slightly easier with Italy’s defender Giorgio Chiellini ruled out of Euro 2012 after picking up a hamstring injury in the match against the Republic of Ireland. France will take on Spain as they failed to at least match England’s result, going down 2-0 in a disappointing defeat to an already eliminated Sweden.

The French were second best throughout, never getting into stride going forward and resorting to long shots mainly. The Swedes were resolute in defence and dangerous going forward. In the 54th minute, Sweden captain Zlatan Ibrahimovic executed an exquisitely timed scissor-kick volley from just inside the 18-yard box to score a sensational goal. Probably the best goal of the tournament so far with the ball flying into French keeper Hugo Lloris’ bottom right-hand corner and leaving him diving at thin air.

A lethargic France seldom looked likely to take control of the match, and with it the destiny of Group D, back to their advantage. Substitute Olivier Giroud should have had an equaliser for France but he headed a corner over the bar from close range.

Sweden made the score-line pretty in injury time when substitute Samuel Holmén hammered Andreas Granqvist's cross against the bar and Sebastian Larsson was on hand to emphatically volley the rebound into an unguarded net.

Laurent Blanc will be hoping for a better performance from his men if they are to stand a chance against Spain.

Olé!

Italy went into their final group match against Ireland knowing only a victory could see them make the quarterfinals and duly delivered. Despite the 2-0 scoreline, Italy were made to work it as Ireland delivered their best performance of the tournament.

Antonio Cassano headed home from set-piece specialist Andrea Pirlo’s 35th minute corner but it was not until the 90th minute when substitute Mario Balotelli put the game to bed with a well taken volley on the turn from another Pirlo corner. Leonardo Bonucci cleverly covered Balotelli’s mouth and calmed him down as he looked to be mouthing off about something which could have got him in trouble, something that seems to follow Balotelli wherever he goes.

Ireland entered the tournament with 11 clean sheets in their previous 14 games and were expected to put up a wall of resistance similar to Greece, however ended up conceding 9 goals in their 3 games at Euro 2012. More surprisingly, they were very susceptible from set-pieces and leave Euro 2012 wondering what went wrong.

Spain and Croatia were both sitting on four points heading into their final group match and a draw for Spain would have been enough to see them qualify for the next round. A draw may also have been enough for Croatia depending on Italy’s goal difference after their match with Ireland. Spain, in contrast to Ireland, turned in their worst performance of the tournament as Croatia kept them at bay for long periods. Despite Spain dominating possession, chances were at a premium with Croatia content to sit back and soak up the Spanish pressure.

With Italy ahead in Poznan, matters remained finely poised in Gdansk as a goal from one side was enough to eliminate the other. Substitute Cesc Fabregas calmed Spanish nerves in the 88th minute as he lifted a ball over the Croatian defence to send Andrés Iniesta clear on goal. Iniesta left Croatian keeper Stipe Pletikosa stranded as he unselfishly squared the ball to substitute Jesús Navas who was left with the simplest of tap-ins into the vacant goal.

Croatia pushed for an equaliser that would have sent them through as news of Italy’s result filtered through but the Croatians simply ran out of time, leaving Spain top of Group C and Italy in second place.

The Spanish will have to life their performance if they are to defend their title especially with a possible matchup against England or France the quarterfinals.

If, as expected, France defeat Sweden and England see off the challenge of co-hosts Ukraine, then it will be Spain versus England and Italy vs France in the final quarterfinal matchups. You can read more about the conclusion of Group D here.

Group of Death conclusion

The Netherlands’ shocking tournament continued as they were defeated 2-1 by Portugal. Needing to win by a two goal margin to stand a chance of making the quarterfinals, Bert van Marwijk succumbed to public pressure and started both Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Rafael van der Vaart with the latter taking the captain’s armband. With the new attacking formation, things got off to a good start as van der Vaart, or VDV as the English press like to refer to him as, scored a peach of a goal in the 11th minute.

However, as predicted, Cristiano Ronaldo broke his tournament duck in the 28th minute after a sensational throughball from Joao Pereira and until late in the game, it looked like the predicted scoring draw was also going to happen. But with 16 minutes left, Ronaldo put the final nail in the Dutch coffin as he slotted home his second goal of the tournament. That also sealed second spot in Group B for the Portuguese.

To be honest, given the tactics employed by van Marwijk and the farcical defending, the Netherlands never stood a chance. At one point, even Dutch full-back Gregory van der Wiel tried to help the Portuguese out as his ridiculous backpass ended up being a perfect ball to Portugal’s Helder Postiga waiting between the centrebacks! Postiga failed to score as he put the ball wide with only keeper Maarten Stekelenburg to beat. If you lose your first two games, you really do not deserve to make the next round!

Portugal will take on the Czech Republic in the quarterfinals and be confident of claiming a semi-final berth.

As expected, Germany finish top of Group B after dispatching Denmark 2-1 in their final group match. Needing just a draw to qualify for the next round, the Germans controlled most of the game and took an early lead through Lukas Podolski in the 19th minute. However, Denmark were not going to lay down easily and equalised through Michael Krohn-Dehli five minutes later.

With ten minutes to go German defender Lars Bender, starting in place of the suspended Jerome Boateng, coolly slotted home his first international goal. That ended Denmark’s hopes of qualification as only a win would have been enough to see them through given Portugal’s win against the Netherlands.

Germany should have no problems making the semi-finals with only Greece in their way in the next round.

In a few hours, Group C comes to a conclusion and you can read more of that here.

Greece bailout!

Greece captain Giorgos Karagounis turns Group A on its head with the winning solitary goal against Russia! Just when you thought that Russia were the favourites to advance to the quarterfinals and Greece were packing their bags to start their summer holidays, up pops Karagounis to bailout Greece. I’m talking about their football team of course! Who knows who will bailout Greece from its economic meltdown…

The only sour note for Karagounis is that he is suspended for the possible match-up with Germany in the quarterfinals after picking up a controversial yellow card for simulation in the penalty area despite replays showing that it was a blatant penalty.

With Dick Advocaat having masterminded a 16 game undefeated streak, Russia could not make it 17 games as even a draw would have been enough to see them into the next round.

The Czech Republic take out top spot in Group A with a 1-0 over co-hosts Poland as both teams came out for the second half knowing only victory would do given Greece had taken a first half lead against Russia. Petr Jiracek scored the winning goal with an assist from Milan Baros, although there was late drama when Poland captain Jakub Blaszczykowski went through on goal and lifted the ball over Czech keeper Petr Cech only for Czech defender Tomas Sivok to head off the line. The final whistle was immediately blown after that, heralding scenes of jubilation from the Czech Republic who will face a possible match-up with Portugal in the quarterfinals.

In a few hours, the Group of Death will come to a conclusion and you can read more of that here.

EURO 2012 Final Group Matches Preview

Two games down and one to go for the teams in Euro 2012. The current standings in each of the groups are as follows:

Group A

Russia, the pre-tournament favourites to finish as group winners, are living up to their billing. They should easily see off Greece in their final group match to seal top spot. Who follows Russia through to the quarterfinals will come down to the other final group match between the Czech Republic and co-hosts Poland. As per the pre-tournament preview, Poland seal that second spot with a comfortable win over the Czechs.

Group B

The Netherlands, my pre-tournament pick as the Euro 2012 winners, are in a lot of strife as the “Group of Death” lives up to its name! They have simply been impotent upfront and farcical in defence. Given the results in this group so far, any team is still mathematically in with a chance of qualifying! Although Germany top the group with 2 wins out of 2, should they lose to Denmark and Portugal defeats the Netherlands, the Germans could face elimination depending on the resulting goal differences!

For the Netherlands, the equation is simple. They need to beat Portugal by a 2-goal margin and rely on their neighbours Germany beating Denmark. Although the Germans only need a draw to qualify, they will not go out to play for a draw and should see off the Danes. Germany have been solid and it just goes to show that friendlies are not a true indicator of form as teams tinker with personnel and tactics.

So will the Netherlands finish second behind the Germans? It will be a hard ask given their poor performances so far. Expect a scoring draw for this one with Cristiano Ronaldo to break his tournament duck and that should be enough to see the Portuguese into the quarterfinals.

Group C

As expected, Spain are top of the group, and after seeing off Croatia in a tight final group match, will finish as group winners. Italy will finish second by putting a couple past Ireland’s shocking defence which is as leaky as a sieve, surprisingly so given that they only conceded 7 goals in 10 games during the Euro 2012 qualifiers. Even Fernando Torres, the £50m striker who could hardly hit the side of a barn for most of the season, put 2 goals past them! The Irish have nothing left to play for except salvaging some pride.

Group D

France should top this group with a win against Sweden who, like Ireland, have nothing left to play for except pride. England and co-hosts Ukraine will battle it out for the second spot with the Ukrainians needing a win to make it through to the quarter-finals. The Ukrainians, led by their star striker and captain Andriy Shevchenko, have been impressive on home soil and cannot be discounted! However, with Wayne Rooney back for England after his 2 match suspension, he will be chomping at the bit to be let loose on the pitch and do not be surprised to see his name on the scoresheet!

So how will the quarterfinals pan out? Let’s have a look:

Quarterfinals

Russia	Vs	Portugal
Germany	Vs	Poland
Spain	Vs	England
France	Vs	Italy

Semi-finals

Germany	Vs	Spain
Russia	Vs	Italy

Finals

Spain

Vs

Italy

Given the Netherlands’ dismal performances so far in this tournament, it has opened the door for Italy to make it into the finals against tournament favourites Spain who will become the first team to win the Euros twice either side of a World Cup! They have played some sexy passing football so far and on that basis, should be deserved winners for playing attractive football!

On a side note, Alan Dzagoev will finish joint top goalscorer on the back of Russia’s run to the semis. Joint with whom you ask? The German with the not so German name, Mario Gomez!

 

Euro 2012 Prediction

The tournament is just about to get underway in a couple of hours and so here are my predictions!

Group A

Russia topped their group in qualifying for Euro 2012, conceding only 4 goals in 10 matches, and they will top this group as well.

Behind them will be co-hosts Poland who go into Euro 2012 with the second youngest squad at the tournament. Despite their youthfulness, they have players who will offer more of a goal threat than Greece or the Czech Republic, who are heavily reliant on the creativity of their captain Tomas Rosicky and the goals from Milan Baros who is under an injury cloud.

Poland will look to their captain Jakub Blaszczykowski and striker Robert Lewandowski, who scored 22 goals in the German Bundesliga, to carry on the form that helped their club Borussia Dortmund to the title last season.

Greece will set out to defend, something they did well in the qualifiers having conceded only 5 goals in 10 games. However, as New Zealand showed at the 2010 World Cup, three draws do not get you into the next round! Just like the Greek economy at the moment, this team will be at the bottom.

Group B

The so-called “Group of Death” featuring the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal and Denmark. Given the quality of players across the board, this is also the glamour group. From one of the greatest players in the world in Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo, to the Netherlands’ Robin van Persie, both of whom are coming off barnstorming domestic seasons. As the chants go, “He scores when he wants”!

van Persie has a bit more star support in the likes of Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder however! The Dutch also have Klaas-Jan Huntelaar who finished as top goalscorer in the German Bundesliga with 29 goals for Schalke. Then there’s a German team playing dynamic, free-flowing football and currently averaging three goals per game. Oh, and a young rising star in Denmark’s Christian Eriksen.

So how does this group pan out then? Germany is only one of two teams with 100% records in qualifying but the Dutch also had a 100% record until they lost their final match against Sweden having already sealed qualification. The Germans conceded 7 goals in 10 games whilst the Dutch conceded 8 goals in 10 games. On that basis, most bookmakers have the Germans favourite to top this group. However, given their recent defensive frailties in the pre-Euro friendly internationals, I am going to pick the Dutch for top spot and Germany second.

Although Denmark beat Portugal twice during qualifying and ended topping the group, I think Portugal will get revenge here and finish above the Danes.

Group C

Easy group winner to pick here. It is the other team to finish with a 100% record in qualifying, the current European and World Champions, Spain. Ole! Despite the loss of David Villa upfront, Fernando Torres seems to have realised where the goal is just in time!

Italy will finish second, provided they do not play Mario Balotelli who, by all accounts, will be a liability! Defensively, the Italians were very solid during qualifying, conceding only 2 goals in 10 matches and ending up undefeated. Of course, the downside is that they have the ‘calcioscommesse' scandal back home affecting their domestic football.

Croatia will finish third, just ahead of Ireland.

Group D

When I reviewed the England squad announcement in my last blog, I wrote that France would top the group with England behind them. I think that will still be the case provided England does not pick up further injuries. They have already lost Gareth Barry and Gary Cahill, and Roy Hodgson has only called up one adequate replacement in Phil Jagielka. No disrespect to Martin Kelly, and Rio Ferdinand aside, there were easily other choices that Hodgson could have made.

So it would not surprise me if Sweden sneaks into that second spot. Remember, England play Sweden in the second group match with Wayne Rooney still suspended. At least for English fans’ sake, Andy Carroll has also realised where the goals are, much like Torres!

Co-hosts Ukraine will not present much threat to these three teams and will finish last.

Quarterfinals

So therefore the QF matches will be:

Russia	vs	Germany
Netherlands	vs	Poland
Spain	vs	England
France	vs	Italy

Semi-finals

Germany	vs	Spain
Netherlands	vs	Italy

Finals

Spain

vs

Netherlands

Looks like we will have a repeat of the 2010 World Cup final!

Can Spain become the first team to win the Euros twice either side of a World Cup? Given their depth of talent, they possibly could. However, I think the Dutch will get one over Spain this time round!

That's assuming that the Dutch haven't walked off the pitch beforehand of course! This is something that their captain Mark van Bommel has stated they will do in the face of racism and a stance I agree with. Hopefully they do not get punished given the comments from UEFA President Michel Platini.

In this day and age, in such a multicultural society, there simply is NO place for racism.

KICK IT OUT - LET'S KICK RACISM OUT OF FOOTBALL

Euro 2012 England Team Announced

With Euro 2012 on the horizon, new England manager Roy Hodgson has made his first ever England squad announcement and there certainly are a few talking points. Here we go through the 23 players named who will be looking to bring home the Euro 2012 trophy.

Goalkeepers:
Joe Hart (17 caps)
Rob Green (11)
John Ruddy (0)

Scott Carson, currently playing with Bursapor in Turkey, has been omitted and John Ruddy from Norwich brought in. A deserved call-up I say given his performances for the Canaries this season in the Premier League.

Defenders:
Leighton Baines (7)
Gary Cahill (8-2 goals)
Ashley Cole (93)
Glen Johnson (35-1)
Joleon Lescott (14)
John Terry (72-6)
Phil Jones (4)

Cole will of course be the first choice left-back with Baines his back-up. On the right, Johnson is first choice and with Kyle Walker unavailable due to a broken toe, Hodgson has decided to not call up Micah Richards but instead rely on Jones to cover given his versatility.

Cahill and Lescott will battle it out to partner Terry in central defence. The call-up of Terry has surprised a lot of people given the talk leading up to the squad announcement was that Rio Ferdinand was going to be in instead of Terry. This was due to Terry having lost the England captaincy in February after being sent to a trial, scheduled for the 9^th of July, charged with racially abusing Ferdinand’s brother Anton who plays for QPR.

Terry of course will still not be captain as it was the English FA that stripped him of it, leading to former manager Fabio Capello handing in his resignation out of principle.

Hodgson has said that Ferdinand was omitted for “footballing reasons” and this will mean he has never represented England at the European Championships despite having 81 caps and once dubbed the “new Bobby Moore”. Bear in mind that his own manager at Manchester United, Sir Alex Ferguson, recently questioned publicly the 33-year old’s ability to handle the rigours of tournament football.

Although Ferdinand has had better form lately, I do not think Hodgson has made a mistake here as Terry is less injury prone than Ferdinand and will do as good a job, if not better. Besides, the bloke has pleaded not guilty so who are we to condemn the man for something he is yet to be proven guilty of?

Midfielders:

Gareth Barry (52-3)

Stewart Downing (33)

Steven Gerrard (90-19)

Frank Lampard (90-23)

Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (0)

James Milner (24)

Scott Parker (11)

Theo Walcott (22-3)

Ashley Young (19-5)

I am very pleased to see the Ox included despite being uncapped previously as he has been very exciting to watch this season when playing for Arsenal. Not only does he have pace and power, but he also has better awareness than Theo Walcott so I would not expect him to replicate Walcott’s role in the 2006 World Cup in Germany.

The Ox will be pushing Young, Walcott and Downing for the starting wingers’ berths should Hodgson employ wingers. Milner can also play on the right wing if need be.

Chances are Hodgson will need the pace on the outside given that England lack pace through the middle however with Gerrard, Lampard, Parker and Barry all in their 30’s. Aside from Parker, whose participation is in some doubt due to an Achilles problem, the others are tried, tested and failed at an international tournament.

Perhaps one of Manchester United’s central pairing of Paul Scholes or Michael Carrick should have been considered. Although Scholes at 37 is older, he has shown in coming out of retirement this season that he still has what it takes to play at a high level. Not only that, he has the freshest legs of the lot having only played for four months of the season! Carrick has had his best season in four years but still did not make the standby list.

It just goes to show that the central creativity will have to come primarily from Gerrard or Lampard given that Parker and Barry are more defensive minded midfielders. Gerrard is a certainty to start pretty much every game given that Hodgson has named him as England captain.

I feel that Downing’s inclusion is disappointing especially given the poor season he has had with Liverpool. Perhaps Hodgson did not bother with statistics and stuck with a player he knew from his short time at Liverpool. 36 EPL games, 72 shots, 0 goals and 0 assists, yet he is on the plane?!

Instead of Downing, I would prefer Hodgson give a chance to either Scott Sinclair or even Nathan Dyer. Both of whom have been in fine form for Swansea this season showing that they can mix it with the big boys in the Premier League. Sinclair has 8 goals and 5 assists from 35 appearances in the EPL whilst Dyer has 5 goals and 4 assists from 29 appearances. These boys are in much better form than Downing. Big mistake my boy Roy.

Forwards:

Wayne Rooney (73-28)
Andy Carroll (3-1)

Danny Welbeck (4)

Jermain Defoe (46-15)

Despite carrying a two-game suspension, Rooney was always going to be included and he will be hoping England have either qualified or have a chance to qualify by the time he gets to put his boots on for the final group match. Needless to say, England’s chances of going deep in this tournament rests largely on this young man’s shoulders.

Defoe is a player I like so I am happy Hodgson has been included. He just knows where the goals are.

I can understand why Hodgson has picked Carroll, because you sometimes just need a big target man to hit the ball to when the passing play is not working and the direct route one football is required. Of course, the better alternative would have been Stoke City’s Peter Crouch who had a better EPL record this season (33 games, 10 goals, 2 assists, and 60 shots compared to Carroll’s 35 games, 4 goals, 2 assists and 88 shots) and is a proven international performer with 42 caps and 22 goals. Another alternate big front man that could be considered is Norwich City’s Grant Holt who knows how to use his size upfront. Not only that, he is the second-highest scoring Englishman in the EPL behind Rooney and 3 goals better than the next Englishman Danny Graham of Swansea. Personally, I would have gone for Crouch given his international experience with Holt my second choice. Carroll would be packing his bags for a holiday if I were England manager!

Welbeck’s inclusion for me is simply not a good choice. Despite making it into Manchester United’s starting XI this season and relegating both Javier Hernandez and Dimitar Berbatov to the bench, he is still quite a raw talent. He played 30 EPL games, scored 9 goals, had 4 assists and 80 shots.  There are two players who stand out for me and who should be included above Welbeck.

My first choice is Chelsea’s Daniel Sturridge who also played 30 EPL games, scored 11 goals, had 3 assists and 93 shots but bear in mind that whilst Welbeck primarily played as an out-an-out central striker, Sturridge was more a right-sided forward playing off his teammates Didier Drogba or Fernando Torres who were in the central striker’s role.

The alternate would be Aston Villa’s captain, Gabriel Agbonlahor who played 33 games, scored 5 goals, had 5 assists and 59 shots. The lower stats are primarily due to Gabby playing more as a winger which gives him added versatility to the England squad.

On standby: Jack Butland, Adam Johnson, Daniel Sturridge, Phil Jagielka, Jordan Henderson

However, Hodgson has named his squad as is and barring any injuries, nothing will change it.

So what will the first XI look like? It depends on who they are playing really as I see Hodgson switching between a 4-4-2 or a 4-5-1 formation.

Against supposed ‘weaker’ opposition: (4-4-2)

                                                Hart

Johnson               Terry                     Cahill                     Cole

Walcott             Gerrard (C)             Parker                 Young

                             Rooney                  Carroll

If Rooney is suspended during use of this formation, Defoe would be expected to line up instead.

Against stronger opposition: (4-5-1)

                                                Hart

Johnson               Terry                     Cahill                     Cole

                                              Parker

Walcott              Gerrard (C)            Barry                     Young

                                              Rooney

If Rooney is suspended during use of this formation, Carroll would be used as the lone target man.

England’s first match from Group D is a tough one against France, followed by Sweden and then Ukraine.

I reckon France, despite their troubles at the last World Cup, will finish top of the group. So that second match against Sweden is the decider to see who will finish second behind France and I think England might do enough to sneak into the quarter-finals. Unfortunately, that is as far as they will go because Spain will be waiting for them then.