World Cup 2014 Semi-Finals

After changing the picks in the last blog update, my original pick for the first semi-final from my first World Cup 2014 blog was correct! Brazil v Germany! And in the second semi-final we will see Netherlands v Argentina which was the prediction just after the group stages had finished!

In fact, I am going to go back to those predictions which will hopefully see an all European final between Germany and Netherlands, thus breaking the European drought at a World Cup on South American soil. You can get this combination for $4.50 on Betfair, firmed up from $13.50 at the start of the Round of 16.

Brazil have lost Neymar for the remainder of the tournament and he will be a big loss having stepped up to the plate and delivered so far this tournament. Worse still is the suspension of captain Thiago Silva for two yellow cards as that will leave a big hole in that defence. In steps Dante who plays his club football in Germany for Bayern Munich. The Germans, on the other hand, have no major injury concerns and Joachim Low will look to move Thomas Müller back upfront with Miroslav Klose dropping back to the bench again after his first start of the tournament against France. Only concern for Low is Mesut Ozil struggles so far and Lukas Podolski being out of favour, ironically both Arsenal players.

Netherlands have had a charmed run and look destined to make the finals again whilst Argentina have been extremely disappointing especially given their firepower available to them. Fault lies with their coach Alejandro Sabella who's tactical nous is certainly not as good as Louis van Gaal's. Ballsy move saving his final substitution in a match that went a full 120 minutes for a goalkeeper change just for the penalty shooutout! But hey, it worked and he looks like a magician!

Right now Betfair has Argentina and Germany equal favourites to win the World Cup at $3.65. Brazil are close behind on $3.75 and Netherlands still good value at $5.20.

In the Golden Boot Award, James Rodriguez is a big favourite at $1.58 after his consolation penalty against Brazil took him 2 goals ahead of Lionel Messi, Müller and Neymar who are all on four goals. Messi is now at $6.20 and Müller at $7.40 on Betfair. Worth a punt on Müller pulling even with Rodriguez, if not ahead, by the end of this tournament that finishes up on the 14th of July 2014.

World Cup 2014 Quarter-Finals

The quarter-finalists have been decided and the final 8 that this author predicted correctly are:

Quarter-finals:

Brazil v Colombia

France v Germany

Netherlands v Costa Rica

Argentina v Belgium 

Having previously predicted a Brazil v Germany semi-final, I am going to change both and go with a Colombia v France semi-final now. You can get $3.20 on Colombia to make the semi-finals and $2.34 on France to do the same at Betfair.

Colombia have certainly been impressive with four wins from four matches thus far. Of course, their sternest opposition so far came only in the round of 16 against Uruguay whom they defeated 2-0 in regulation time. It must be said though that Uruguay were disappointing in that match. Will Colombia be able to carry this form into their match against the host nation Brazil? Brazil started this World Cup with a polished performance by dispatching the Croatians 3-1 but since then have been disappointing. They certainly lack a world-class striker to spearhead their attack with either Fred or Jo to choose from only given Luiz Felipe Scolari's reluctance to move either Hulk or Neymar in from the flanks. The pressure on Brazil to perform at home is telling and I would expect Colombia to come through 2-1 ($18 on Betfair) with player of the tournament James Rodríguez to score at least one goal.

France have also been impressive thus far and aside from the 0-0 draw in their final group match against Ecuador, when they had already qualified, they have scored 10 goals in 3 matches. Germany on the other hand, started their World Cup campaign with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal then struggled to a 2-2 draw against Ghana and a 1-0 win over USA. In their last match, Algeria pushed them all the way with Germany only coming away at the end of extra-time with a 2-1 win. If Mats Hummels is still unavailable for the match against France and Didier Deschamps starts with Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema instead of pushing Benzema to the left flank to accomodate Olivier Giroud, Germany could find themselves packing their bags to head home. Ghana showed that Germany are not rock tight at the back and if Manuel Neuer misjudges one of his sweeping runs out of his area, which he has only just gotten away with so far, do not be surprised to see France put 3 goals past Germany. This could be 3-1 or 3-2 to France and you get odds of $38 and $48 respectively at Betfair.

Having picked Netherlands to win 2-1 against Mexico (only just!), I still expect them to see off Costa Rica who have had a fairytale run in this World Cup. Louis van Gaal's tactical astuteness will be too good for Costa Rica. He could even afford to rest Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben for this match and give starts to Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Memphis Depay who have been fantastic coming off the bench. Call it 2-0 and get $7.40 on Betfair.

Argentina have been disappointing all tournament. They just have not really clicked into gear and have relied on Lionel Messi's moments of magic to get them out of tight situations. Teams like Iran and Switzerland have shown how the Argentinians can be shut down for long periods at a time because they are over-reliant on their only real creative players in Messi and Ángel di María. Even with world-class forwards like Sergio Agüero and Gonzalo Higuaín to call upon, they still need service to score goals. Belgium, like Argentina, have four wins from four matches. Although still a young team and despite criticism of Marc Wilmots' team selection policy, they might just get over the line here against Argentina. Both teams went into extra-time in the round of 16 so both sets of players will be taxed equally. This will be a tight game and Belgium to squeeze into the semi-finals 1-0 either in regulation time or extra-time. You can get 0-0 at $8.60 or Belgium to win 1-0 for $11 on Betfair.

So the semi-finals would now look like this:

Colombia v France

Netherlands v Belgium

Final:

Colombia v Netherlands --> Netherlands

Third-place playoff:

France v Belgium --> France

Get $6.40 for Netherlands to lift the World Cup trophy or $14.50 for Colombia to do it on Betfair. If you fancy France, you can get $9.60 there.

Betfair will get you $21 for a Colombia/Netherlands final or $14.50 for a France/Netherlands final. The favourites are still Argentina/Brazil who have firmed to $5.70 from $6 prior to the start of the Round of 16 and second in the market is a Brazil/Netherlands final paying $6.40.

Disclaimer: This author takes no responsibility if you lose your own home. Bet at your own risk! Remember to bet within your limits and gamble responsibly.