World Cup 2014 Semi-Finals

After changing the picks in the last blog update, my original pick for the first semi-final from my first World Cup 2014 blog was correct! Brazil v Germany! And in the second semi-final we will see Netherlands v Argentina which was the prediction just after the group stages had finished!

In fact, I am going to go back to those predictions which will hopefully see an all European final between Germany and Netherlands, thus breaking the European drought at a World Cup on South American soil. You can get this combination for $4.50 on Betfair, firmed up from $13.50 at the start of the Round of 16.

Brazil have lost Neymar for the remainder of the tournament and he will be a big loss having stepped up to the plate and delivered so far this tournament. Worse still is the suspension of captain Thiago Silva for two yellow cards as that will leave a big hole in that defence. In steps Dante who plays his club football in Germany for Bayern Munich. The Germans, on the other hand, have no major injury concerns and Joachim Low will look to move Thomas Müller back upfront with Miroslav Klose dropping back to the bench again after his first start of the tournament against France. Only concern for Low is Mesut Ozil struggles so far and Lukas Podolski being out of favour, ironically both Arsenal players.

Netherlands have had a charmed run and look destined to make the finals again whilst Argentina have been extremely disappointing especially given their firepower available to them. Fault lies with their coach Alejandro Sabella who's tactical nous is certainly not as good as Louis van Gaal's. Ballsy move saving his final substitution in a match that went a full 120 minutes for a goalkeeper change just for the penalty shooutout! But hey, it worked and he looks like a magician!

Right now Betfair has Argentina and Germany equal favourites to win the World Cup at $3.65. Brazil are close behind on $3.75 and Netherlands still good value at $5.20.

In the Golden Boot Award, James Rodriguez is a big favourite at $1.58 after his consolation penalty against Brazil took him 2 goals ahead of Lionel Messi, Müller and Neymar who are all on four goals. Messi is now at $6.20 and Müller at $7.40 on Betfair. Worth a punt on Müller pulling even with Rodriguez, if not ahead, by the end of this tournament that finishes up on the 14th of July 2014.

World Cup 2014 Quarter-Finals

The quarter-finalists have been decided and the final 8 that this author predicted correctly are:

Quarter-finals:

Brazil v Colombia

France v Germany

Netherlands v Costa Rica

Argentina v Belgium 

Having previously predicted a Brazil v Germany semi-final, I am going to change both and go with a Colombia v France semi-final now. You can get $3.20 on Colombia to make the semi-finals and $2.34 on France to do the same at Betfair.

Colombia have certainly been impressive with four wins from four matches thus far. Of course, their sternest opposition so far came only in the round of 16 against Uruguay whom they defeated 2-0 in regulation time. It must be said though that Uruguay were disappointing in that match. Will Colombia be able to carry this form into their match against the host nation Brazil? Brazil started this World Cup with a polished performance by dispatching the Croatians 3-1 but since then have been disappointing. They certainly lack a world-class striker to spearhead their attack with either Fred or Jo to choose from only given Luiz Felipe Scolari's reluctance to move either Hulk or Neymar in from the flanks. The pressure on Brazil to perform at home is telling and I would expect Colombia to come through 2-1 ($18 on Betfair) with player of the tournament James Rodríguez to score at least one goal.

France have also been impressive thus far and aside from the 0-0 draw in their final group match against Ecuador, when they had already qualified, they have scored 10 goals in 3 matches. Germany on the other hand, started their World Cup campaign with a 4-0 demolition of Portugal then struggled to a 2-2 draw against Ghana and a 1-0 win over USA. In their last match, Algeria pushed them all the way with Germany only coming away at the end of extra-time with a 2-1 win. If Mats Hummels is still unavailable for the match against France and Didier Deschamps starts with Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema instead of pushing Benzema to the left flank to accomodate Olivier Giroud, Germany could find themselves packing their bags to head home. Ghana showed that Germany are not rock tight at the back and if Manuel Neuer misjudges one of his sweeping runs out of his area, which he has only just gotten away with so far, do not be surprised to see France put 3 goals past Germany. This could be 3-1 or 3-2 to France and you get odds of $38 and $48 respectively at Betfair.

Having picked Netherlands to win 2-1 against Mexico (only just!), I still expect them to see off Costa Rica who have had a fairytale run in this World Cup. Louis van Gaal's tactical astuteness will be too good for Costa Rica. He could even afford to rest Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben for this match and give starts to Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Memphis Depay who have been fantastic coming off the bench. Call it 2-0 and get $7.40 on Betfair.

Argentina have been disappointing all tournament. They just have not really clicked into gear and have relied on Lionel Messi's moments of magic to get them out of tight situations. Teams like Iran and Switzerland have shown how the Argentinians can be shut down for long periods at a time because they are over-reliant on their only real creative players in Messi and Ángel di María. Even with world-class forwards like Sergio Agüero and Gonzalo Higuaín to call upon, they still need service to score goals. Belgium, like Argentina, have four wins from four matches. Although still a young team and despite criticism of Marc Wilmots' team selection policy, they might just get over the line here against Argentina. Both teams went into extra-time in the round of 16 so both sets of players will be taxed equally. This will be a tight game and Belgium to squeeze into the semi-finals 1-0 either in regulation time or extra-time. You can get 0-0 at $8.60 or Belgium to win 1-0 for $11 on Betfair.

So the semi-finals would now look like this:

Colombia v France

Netherlands v Belgium

Final:

Colombia v Netherlands --> Netherlands

Third-place playoff:

France v Belgium --> France

Get $6.40 for Netherlands to lift the World Cup trophy or $14.50 for Colombia to do it on Betfair. If you fancy France, you can get $9.60 there.

Betfair will get you $21 for a Colombia/Netherlands final or $14.50 for a France/Netherlands final. The favourites are still Argentina/Brazil who have firmed to $5.70 from $6 prior to the start of the Round of 16 and second in the market is a Brazil/Netherlands final paying $6.40.

Disclaimer: This author takes no responsibility if you lose your own home. Bet at your own risk! Remember to bet within your limits and gamble responsibly.

World Cup 2014 Knockout Rounds

The Group stages have come to a conclusion, bringing us to the business end of the World Cup as we begin the knockout stages starting with the Round of 16 tonight. Now there are no second chances - lose and that is it, time to pack the bags!

But what a World Cup this has been! There have been goals galore with 136 goals scored thus far at an average of 2.83 goals per game. This is the highest since 1970 where the average was 2.96. Except for Greece, all the remaining teams have a strong attacking disposition so do not be surprised to see the average holding up or even increasing.

Apart from Cristiano Ronaldo, who probably was not 100% fit to be honest, the big stars have stood up so far in this tournament. Especially Lionel Messi and Neymar. The Dutch duo of Bat-van (van Persie) and Robben also lit up the Group stages with 3 goals apiece. Two other players of note who have stood are Colombian midfielder James Rodriguez and Mexican goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa who single-handedly kept Brazil goalless in their match-up. Uruguayan forward Luis Suarez recovered quickly from a minor knee operation four weeks prior to Uruguay's second Group match against England and was an animal as he scored 2 goals to flatten England. However, he took his animal instincts to another level in the final Group match against Italy as he bit Giorgio Chiellini on the shoulder, the third time he has bitten a rival player on the football pitch! Suarez has subsequently been expelled from the tournament by FIFA, banned for nine international matches and barred from any football activity for four months.

There were certainly shocks and surprises as well with Costa Rica, Greece, Algeria and the United States making it through whilst defending champions Spain were sent packing along with Italy, England and Portugal. Apart from England, I had certainly expected Spain, Italy and Portugal to progress. All three teams were disappointing to watch though and deserve to be on the plane home.

So how does the Round of 16 look now? Here you go:

Brazil v Chile

Colombia v Uruguay

Netherlands v Mexico

Costa Rica v Greece

France v Nigeria

Germany v Algeria

Argentina v Switzerland 

Belgium v United States

Bold teams represent author's correct picks whilst the Netherlands in italics had been picked to finish second in their Group initially.

Interesting note is that 5 out of 6 CONMEBOL teams have made it through keeping in line with the tradition of South American sides doing well in tournaments held on the continent. Ecuador was the only team to miss out and was my pick to have edged out Switzerland.

So having watched and observed the teams leading to this stage, here are now my predictions:

Quarter-finals:

Brazil v Colombia

France v Germany

Netherlands v Costa Rica

Argentina v Belgium 

Semi-finals:

Brazil v Germany

Netherlands v Argentina

Final:

Germany v Netherlands --> Germany

Third-place playoff:

Brazil v Argentina --> Brazil

Betfair currently have Germany third favourites to win the World Cup at $5.50, just behind Argentina on $5.40 whilst Brazil still are the favourites at $4.20.

You can get $13.50 for a Germany/Netherlands final or $7.60 for a Germany/Argentina final on Betfair. The Brazil/Argentina is still the favourite and priced at $6.

World Cup 2014 Predictions

In less than 30 hours, the next edition of the FIFA World Cup kicks off with hosts Brazil taking on Croatia in the opening match.

The squads for all 32 competing nations have been finalised, barring any last minute injuries. Qualification form and friendly results leading up to this magical occasion can be thrown out the window as anything can happen in football!

That being said, punters still like to predict the outcomes of these events and so here is my prediction for all those who fancy a punt! The squads have been analysed, team tactics have been analysed, amd even the forecasted weather for each match has been analysed. Check out the fantastic website for that at: http://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/fifa_world_cup_weather.asp

Round of 16:

Brazil v Netherlands

Ivory Coast v Uruguay

Spain v Croatia

Italy v Colombia

France v Bosnia

Germany v Korea 

Argentina v Ecuador (who edge out Switzerland in the Group stages on goal difference)

Belgium v Portugal

Quarter-finals:

Brazil v Uruguay

France v Germany

Spain v Italy

Argentina v Portugal

Semi-finals:

Brazil v Germany

Spain v Argentina

Final:

Brazil v Argentina --> Brazil

Third-place playoff:

Germany v Spain --> Spain

As you can see, it definitely will be a tough run all the way to the final for Brazil with the whole weight of expectation of the home nation on their shoulders. But if they can make it past Netherlands, Uruguay and Germany then they definitely deserve to win in the final too. Just cannot see them losing to their hated rivals Argentina on home soil. 

Of course, Brazil could slip up at any stage with all the banana peels in the way. Remember, they did lose to the Netherlands 2-1 in the last World Cup in South Africa after taking the lead initially.

Argentina's "soft" run to the semi-finals might cost them as they may not be mentally prepared but I pick them over Spain to make the final because Spain will have a tough game against Italy and could be jaded by the time they face Lionel Messi and co. Come finals time though, Messi could go missing in the match just like he had at the tail-end of Barcelona's season when he was needed most.

Odds are currently $9.40 on the Brazil/Argentina quinella. The Brazil/Spain quinella now down to $12 after some heavy trading at $14.

Of course, injuries and suspensions could also change all this but on the face of it, I think Brazil should win this one at home.

A lot has been made about an European team never having won the World Cup on South American soil but to be honest, despite my prediction, there is no reason why Spain or Germany could not walk away with the World Cup trophy. Those looking at historical trends, there have only been six World Cups held in South America. Some scientists might argue that that is not enough data! Another factor to consider is that majority of the matches will be played in the cooler part of Brazil so the heat and humidity should not be too much of an issue for European teams. That said, plenty of Brazilians, Argentinians and Uruguayans play their club football in Europe these days as well.

Should Brazil make it all the way, look for Neymar to be the player of the tournament and Golden Boot winner given that he takes free-kicks and penalties for the Seleção. Odds are currently $12 on Neymar to win the Golden Boot. Given Argentina's run to the final though, Messi is rightly favourite in the Golden Boot market at $8.60 as he too takes free-kicks and penalties for La Albiceleste. Gonzalo Higuaín is nicely priced at $21 having only trailed behind Messi by one goal in the World Cup Qualifiers.

Should Luis Suarez be fit to start Uruguay's World Cup opener against Costa Rica then he would be a juicy pick at $25 given his goalscoring exploits and clinical penalties this season. Otherwise save your money.

The dark horse for the Golden Boot would be Belgium's Romelu Lukaku if he scores 3 or 4 against Algeria and puts 1 or 2 past Korea and Russia in the Group stages. He could even pick a goal up against Portugal in the Round of 16. Worth a flutter at $27!

Happy punting! And for those not punting, sit back and enjoy the spectacle of the world game!

Disclaimer: This author takes no responsibility if you lose your own home. Bet at your own risk! Remember to bet within your limits and gamble responsibly.